Furnace
15–25 years typical. Heat exchanger condition is the limiting factor. Cracked exchangers require replacement, not repair.
Central AC
10–15 years for the outdoor condenser. Indoor coil and ductwork last longer.
Water heater
8–12 years for tank-style. Tankless can last 20+ years with maintenance.
Boiler systems
20–35 years for cast iron. 15–20 for modern condensing.
Heat pumps
12–15 years typical in Minnesota's climate.